Climate Change Fight Needs Game Attitude
“玩”出来的环保策略
Game theory suggests that punishment for pollution has to come at the local level.
惩治污染环境的恶行时，并不是级别越高的官员说话越管用——这是数学家从游戏里得出的结论。
撰文/播音 戴维•别洛(David Biello)
It's obvious. Global efforts to combat climate change have failed. International summits are full of hot air and greenhouse gas pollution continues to rise. If a country bails on a climate commitment, they pay a price of, well, zero.
很明显，各国联手对抗气候变化的努力已经失败了。国际峰会上充斥着大气变暖与温室气体污染持续加重等问题。如果某个国家违反了气候协议，他们需要付出什么代价呢？呃…...什么都没有。
Turns out that's okay, at least according to game theory analyses by researchers at the University of Lisbon. Their models suggest that punishment by global institutions has no effect. They also say that global summits actually impede cooperation.
搞了半天，这也没什么大不了，至少里斯本大学（University of Lisbon）的研究人员作出了这样的分析。他们提出的模型显示，国际机构的惩罚措施根本就没有任何效果。此外他们还认为，全球峰会事实上阻碍了国际合作的进行。
Now, in a new report, the researchers suggest that if punishment starts getting handed out at the local level, say city governments, what emerges is a much more cooperative global regime for combating climate change. The only other way for such collaboration to develop was for there to be a perception that the risks associated with climate change were devastating. The report is in the journal Nature Climate Change.
研究人员在一份最新的报告中提出，如果惩罚由地方机构来执行——比如市政府，对抗气候变化的国际合作将会变得更加紧密。除此之外唯一的办法，是让人们切实感受到气候变化带来的毁灭性威胁。该报告刊登于《自然气候变化》杂志。
That's not the case at present, despite the reality of the environmental, economic and health threats posed by global warming. In fact, such threats are reminiscent of the risks associated with another crisis, the financial one, as noted by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.
尽管全球变暖所带来的一系列环境、经济与健康问题的确存在，但目前，人们并没有认识到全球变暖的严重危害。正如经济合作与发展组织（OECD）指出的，以上问题更容易让人联想到金融危机。
Nevertheless, the math of how people play games suggests that successfully curbing carbon pollution will rely on the old adage: think globally… act locally.
不管怎样，人们确实从游戏中玩出来了一条对付碳排放的“古训”：全球化思考，本地化执行。
（题图来源：scientificamerican.com）
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